RESEARCH ARTICLE


Predictor Model of Root Caries in Older Adults: Reporting of Evidence to the Translational Evidence Mechanism



Bauer JG1, *, Spackman S2, Dong J3, Garrett N4
1 UCLA School of Dentistry, Division of Restorative Dentistry, June and Paul Ehrlich Endowed Program in Geriatric Dentistry, 23-008E CHS, PO Box 951668, 10833 Le Conte Avenue, Los Angeles, California 90095-1668, USA
2 UCLA School of Dentistry, Division of Restorative Dentistry, June and Paul Ehrlich Endowed Program in Geriatric Dentistry, USA
3 UCLA, Department of Biostatistics and Department of Human Genetics, USA
4 UCLA School of Dentistry, Division of Advanced Prosthodontics, Biomaterials, and Hospital Dentistry; Weintraub Center for Reconstructive Biotechnology, USA


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Creative Commons License
© Bauer et al.; Licensee Bentham Open.

open-access license: This is an open access article licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/) which permits unrestricted, non-commercial use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the work is properly cited.

* Address correspondence to this author at the UCLA School of Dentistry, Division of Restorative Dentistry, June and Paul Ehrlich Endowed Program in Geriatric Dentistry, 23-008E CHS, PO Box 951668, 10833 Le Conte Avenue, Los Angeles, California 90095-1668, USA; Tel: 310-825-57747; Fax: 310-641-0523; E-mail: jbauer@dent.ucla.edu


Abstract

Compared to younger adults, older adults are at greater risk for root caries. A model of root caries may assist dentists in predicting disease outcomes. OBJECTIVES: Using the Iowa 65+ Oral Health Survey, analysis was done to model the patterns of the root caries development in older adults.

Methods:

The statistical analysis included Markov chain modeling, model estimation and validation.

Results:

The model effectively predicts root caries using an 18-month predictive cycle and is validated up to 36 months (two cycles), with no significant differences (Chi-square test p-values >0.1) between predicted and observed distributions. However, we do not have observed data for validation beyond 36 months since the model was designed to perform only at single or multiple 18-month cycles. As expected, the predicted distribution at 54-month (3 cycles) and the observed distribution at 60-month differed significantly (p<0.0001).

Conclusions:

The model demonstrated a high probability that a sound surface will remain caries free. However, one and multiple-surface lesions aggressively infect adjoining surfaces. Maturing of the carious lesion occurs with the 4-surface lesion, decreasing the probability of tooth loss. Thus, maintaining a sound root surface and early treatment intervention reduces the risk of tooth dysfunction (morphological destruction) and loss.

DATABASE FILTERS:

P: Tooth/Subject characteristics-Older adults, 65 years of age or more, male and female participants, regional rural Iowa residents, race unspecified, functional status-non-institutionalized level unspecified, risk level unspecified

I: Root caries

P (C-not applicable): Probability/Statistical significance for decision data only/Clinical significance-dataset over 20 years old/Utility data not included/Cost data not included/Meaning in practice undetermined.

O: Each year through a three year cycle, caries progression from a sound root surface

A: Data attached:

■ Published manuscript

□ Unpublished manuscript

□ Raw data

R: Primary author contact information present